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Trends in ratings

Let's look at the period between 1999 and 2020. Why? Covid and bubble is a crazy situation, so let's ignore that for now. Also, let's ignore pre-MJ because clearly that is a historic point also. Specifically, we're interested in year-over-year growth. Why? Let's say you are the NBA and want to increase ratings from last year. What do you do? So, this is assuming you just want this current year's ratings to be higher than last year. So if it is not higher, than you change it up. Otherwise, if it is increasing, then you stay with the current formula.

  • 9 times did the ratings increase relative to the previous year

    • Lakers (4x) (all large increases)
    • Warriors (3x) (1 large increase, the other 2 very small)
    • 2006 Heat vs Mavs (small increase)
    • 2013 Heat vs Spurs (small increase)

  • 13 times did the ratings decreaste relative to the previous year

    • Lakers vs Nets
    • Spurs vs Nets
    • Spurs vs Pistons
    • Lakers vs Magic
    • Mavs vs Heat
    • OKC vs Heat
    • Spurs vs Heat
    • Warriors vs Cavs
    • Warriors vs Cavs
    • Warriors vs Raptors
    • Lakers vs Heat (Covid)

So based on all this, which teams would I predict to be in the Finals in 2022?

  • Lakers show up 7 times. 4x there were large increases. 2x there were small decreases. 1x there was a large decrease which can be explained by Covid. So overall, Lakers are good to have if you want an increase,
  • Warriors show up 5 times. Twice were there significant increaases. The other 3x there were decreases.
  • Last time there was a big jump in ratings, the Warriors were involved. So if NBA wants to do it again, good idea to include the Warriors.
  • Who is the opponent though? Nets? I don't think Bucks provided enough ratings jump to justify a repeat.
  • I think it will be Warriors vs Nets